Sunday, February 26, 2012

Oil @ 150……..200………..250 US$ and Japan


Oil @ 150……..200………..250 US$ and Japan
When production loss in the world is growing, 
Nation       Capacity loss                 
Libya - 1.6 million barrels         1 million barrel - will take at least 1 year to reach pre-revolution 
Yemen - Loss 300,000 barrels
South Sudan - 350,000 barrels main buyer China
Syria - 250,000 barrels
Nigeria, and other African nations - 

Total loss of production 2 million barrels - total spare capacity - Saudi Arabia - 2 million barrels a day, presents products is already using 1.5 million barrels spare capacity. There is no more spare capacity which can be brought into use.
Oil 150 US$ soon..............200 after some more time........
No alternative for Japan rather than buying Iran oil in short and long term

Japan posts record trade deficit
Increased energy imports contributed to Japan last year recording its first annual trade deficit since 1980. 
The Japanese economy is one of the third largest in the world. Only the USA and China have a higher GNP. Japan is the 3rd largest economy in the world behind the US and China. In 2010, Japan's GDP (Current Prices, US dollars) was US$5.458 trillion and its GDP (PPP) was US$4.309 trillion.
Imports: Japan has a surplus in its export/import balance. The most important import goods are raw materials such as oil, foodstuffs and wood. Major supplier is China, followed by the USA, Australia, Saudi- Arabia, South Korea, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates.
Industries: Manufacturing, construction, distribution, real estate, services, and communication are Japan's major industries today. Agriculture makes up only about two percent of the GNP. Resources of raw materials are very limited and the mining industry rather small.
  • Japan needs to import about 84% of its energy requirements.
  • Its first commercial nuclear power reactor began operating in mid-1966, and nuclear energy has been a national strategic priority since 1973.
  • The country's 50 main reactors have provided some 30% of the country's electricity and this was expected to increase to at least 40% by 2017.
  • Japan has a full fuel cycle set-up, including enrichment and reprocessing of used fuel for recycle.
  • Japan posts a record trade deficit of $18.7 billion in January – 2012
  • Rise due to the increase in oil prices and increase of fossil fuel imports
  • Deficit fueled by the shutdown of Japan's nuclear power plants
  • Only five reactors out of 54 still online after March 11 earthquake and nuclear disaster
Japan has posted a record trade deficit for January after its nuclear crisis shut down nearly all reactors, sending fuel imports surging.
The Y1.48 trillion ($A17.27 billion) deficit reported on Monday has highlighted Japan's increased dependence on imported fuel after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami sent the Fukushima nuclear plant into multiple meltdowns.
Now, Japan is importing more natural gas and oil as utilities boost non-nuclear power generation. Imports of natural gas in January increased 74 per cent from a year earlier and imports of petroleum jumped nearly 13 per cent.
Despite producing only trifling amounts of oil domestically from fields off its west coast, Japan is the third largest oil consumer in the world behind the U.S. and China, as well as the third largest net importer of crude oil. Imported oil accounts for some 45 percent of Japan’s energy needs. Besides bringing in a lot of oil, Japan is the world’s largest importer of both coal and liquefied natural gas.
Supplying the same amount of electricity by oil, for example, would increase oil imports by about 62 million metric tons per year, or about 1.25 million barrels per day,” says Toufiq Siddiqi, a researcher with the nonprofit East-West Institute. He adds that at the current price of oil per barrel (roughly $100), switching out nuclear for oil would cost Japan upwards of $46 billion per year. “Further, it would take almost a decade to build enough new oil, coal or natural gas-fired power plants to provide the equivalent amount of electricity, and tens of billions of dollars per year would be required to do so,” he concludes.
Japan January Liquefied Natural Gas Imports Rise 28.2%;
Japan’s liquefied natural gas imports rose to a record in January after the Fukushima nuclear disaster led to the shutdown of most of the country’s atomic reactors, causing utilities to use more fossil fuels.
The nation’s LNG imports climbed 28.2 percent from a year earlier to 8.15 million metric tons, according to a preliminary report released today by the Ministry of Finance.
Japan appears to be looking to natural gas, specifically liquefied natural gas (LNG), to compensate, increasing LNG imports by 27 percent year-on-year in January 2012 and receiving imports from new sources such as Qatar and Russia.  Japan was only meeting about 16 percent of its energy demand through domestic production before the disaster, and 30 percent of that production came from nuclear energy.
Natural gas and other conventional fuel imports will rise after Japan's nuclear disaster. Asian exporters of natural gas, coal, and oil should see the biggest boost.
But analysts say the amount of fuel Japan must import to make up for shutdown nuclear generation will greatly outstrip the immediate drop in consumer demand. Goldman Sachs estimates Japan must import 247,000 barrels a day of oil to compensate for the country's lost nuclear capacity while demand will drop only 16,000 barrels a day due to an expected economic slowdown in the first half.

1 comment:

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